As the economy weakens and unemployment grows, the credit card industry could be seeing just the start of a growing wave of trouble.

In February, Moody's Credit Card Credit Indexes reported that credit card charge-offs reached a new high of 7.74% in January. Charge-offs are credit-card loans deemed to be uncollectible. Furthermore, the increasing number of borrowers falling behind on payments means charge-off rates are almost certain to increase as the economy worsens.

The January delinquency rate, which forecasts the charge-off rate, climbed to 5.94%, the highest in 17 years. The record high of 6.31% in January 1992 is likely to be surpassed in the months ahead, Moody's said. In addition, Moody's expects the charge-off rate index could move into double digits by the end of this year if unemployment keeps rising.

Meanwhile, payment rates, which have declined since early 2007, are near a five-year low. In January, the principal payment rate fell to 16.39%, about 2.7 percentage points below the rate in January 2008.

Digging deeper into the sector, we find that American Express has been having a rough year, as the shares have retreated more than 29% since the start of 2009. The company recently offered a $300 incentive for some customers to cancel their accounts as the card issuer and payments processor struggle with surging loan delinquencies and reduced card use.

American Express has been guided lower by resistance at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages for a loss of nearly 80% since June 2007. While the stock recently bounced off support at the 10 level, it is in the process of rallying into staunch resistance at its 10-week trend line--a moving average above which it has not finished a single week since late September 2008.

Read the full article here.